Can't Buy Me Love?

With just two weeks until Election Day, FGS experts are offering insights on polls, trends, campaign cash and other developments in our new Election Dashboard to help you prepare for any outcome.    

The presidential race remains a toss-up, as assessed by most national polls and by FGS Global election analysts. Vice President Harris’ minuscule lead in nationwide polls is within the margin of error for such surveys, meaning it’s not really a lead at all. With little chance of another major pivot point, such as a second Harris-Trump debate, it looks like a game of inches to the end.

But there’s one race where the matchup isn’t as tight: Campaign cash.

Harris has out-raised Trump each month since she replaced President Biden as the Democratic nominee, setting a record in the three-month period ending Sep. 30 for the biggest campaign fund-raising quarter ever—about $633 million. They have topped $1 billion in total campaign cash and she maintains a large financial advantage over former President Trump, despite heavy spending on political advertising. Harris and the Democrats raised nearly $360 million in September alone, while Trump and Republicans had reported raising $160 million the same month.

But money hasn’t bought Harris the edge she’s seeking—and it isn’t always a good predictor of the winner. Just ask Hillary Clinton, who significantly out-raised Trump in the 2016 race. 

The Trump team says its 2024 operation is lean on purpose, and both candidates also benefit from spending by outside groups with agendas.

Stay up-to-date on November’s election with expert analysis at our 2024 Election Dashboard.

For many Americans, Election Day is already upon us with early voting. As of today, Wisconsin joins other key swing states including Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona in opening up the polls. 

Here’s what we know about these votes:

• As of October 15, over 8 million votes have already been cast.

• Early voting usually favors Democrats, but Republicans are making a push this year to encourage their voters to vote early. 

• So far in states where party is recorded, 52% of early voters are Democrats and 29% are Republicans. But it’s still early – and this pattern could flip in the next few weeks.

• In Pennsylvania, Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 3-to-1 in early voting. 

• In Arizona, Republican early voters so far outnumber the Democrats. 

• In Georgia, a record number of votes were cast on the first day of early voting. Party ID isn’t recorded, so it’s hard to know who has the early advantage.

As new data continues to roll in, it remains critical to be prepared for every possible election outcome. For more information, check out the four-part series on our Alternative Futures offering as covered by Axios:

1. Behind the Curtain — Election scenario 1: War-gaming a Trump sweep

2. Behind the Curtain — Election scenario 2: Harris sweep

3. Behind the Curtain — Election scenario 3: Trump with Dem restraint

4. Behind the Curtain — Election scenario 4: Harris in Handcuffs
   

In an election year packed with unpredictable turns, the latest news to surprise our team isn’t political – it’s confectionary. In a surprising twist this Halloween season, our Food and Ag team reports gummy candy is surging ahead in the race for consumer support, leaving chocolate scrambling for snackers.

According to The Washington Post, Gen Z and millennial consumers are increasingly reaching for sour, gummy and fruity candy, and the growing preference has driven candy companies to experiment with new, innovative flavors and varieties. 

Consumers may also reach for the Sour Patch Kids over the Snickers this year because of the increased prices of chocolate. Cocoa prices have more than doubled since the beginning of 2024, with cocoa production falling short due to extreme weather patterns on the Ivory Coast. Food Dive reports that candy companies like Hershey, Mars and Nestlé are instead focusing on products that have less or no chocolate and do not rely on an unpredictable cocoa crop.

For more like this, subscribe to FGS Global’s weekly newsletter, What We’re Watching In Food & Ag.